FORECASTING FIRM DEMAND

 Table of Content

                                                                                                                    

1.     Objective

2.     Variables and Attributes

1)    Exogenous Variables

2)    Endogenous Variables

3)    Fire Specific Variables

3.     Influence Diagrams

1)    Firm Demand

2)    Average Firm Demand

3)    Normalized Market Share

4.     Mathematical Representation

1)    Firm Demand (FD)

2)    Total Industry Demand (TID)

3)    Average Firm Demand (AFD)

a.     Regression Analysis by Using Excel

b.    Regression Analysis by Using SAS 8.2

4)    Normalized Market Share (NSOM)

5.     Testing and Validation

1)    Statistics

2)    Average Firm Demand Time Series

3)    Average Firm Demand Residual Regression Analysis

4)    Normalized Market Share Regression Analysis

6.     Implementation and Use

 

Appendix A - Data File

Appendix B - Forecast Firm Demand by Using CB Predictor 1.3

Appendix C - Regression Analysis by Using Excel

                             Average Firm Demand Time Series

                             Average Firm Demand Residual

                             Normalized Market Share

Appendix D - Regression Analysis by Using SAS 8.2

                             Average Firm Demand Residual

                             Normalized Market Share

Figure 1 – Average Firm Demand Time Series

Figure 2 – Average Firm Demand Residual Regression

Table 1 – Average Firm Demand Time Series Result

Table 2 – Average Firm Demand Residual Regression Result

Table 3 – Normalized Market Share Regression Result